Uncertainty

Deciding is easy for me. I have only one condition that must be met before I decide. I must be certain.

As you might expect, this condition becomes harder to satisfy as the number of options increases. In formal mathematical terms: As N ↑, 🙂 → 🙁 

I can see the pros and cons of all the options at once—a decision-making superposition. (This ability is not as useful as it sounds.)

Satisfying my one pre-condition should be simple. All it would take is a message from the future from the correct universe from a trustworthy authority validated by a licensed notary telling me the right answer. Why is that so hard?

I’m certainly not alone being uncomfortable with uncertainty. The stock market doesn’t like it, job applicants don’t like it, and Tom Petty doesn’t like it.

The entire insurance industry exists because of uncertainty and the anxiety it causes. Think you’re not afraid? Stop paying your premiums. There’s a quote out there attributed to Warren Buffett: “We pay a high price for certainty.” (He didn’t say that, but he said something similar.)

As someone occasionally put in a decision superposition, I’m fascinated by the Deciders—the people who make a living deciding. CEOs and Generals are the most famous examples, but it could be anyone. The world doesn’t wait until you feel comfortable, it’s moving on regardless. Meanwhile, the fate of your organization or your troops is on the line. To not choose is to choose death.

Things seem a little less life or death when I’m comparing sock brands, but the example is instructive. (I know blisters are serious but let’s put a pin in them for now.) Logically, a decision farther from life and death should take less time to make. Conversely, life and death decisions should take more time.

My brain often wants to treat a decision as if my life hangs in the balance. My life will be destroyed if I buy the wrong socks, so I will look at socks for one year if that is what it takes. If my current socks vaporize that is an acceptable loss.

My brain is telling me to pursue the perfect decision. But a perfect result assumes that 100% of relevant information can be known. What if that’s not true? Maybe Donald Rumsfeld knows the answer.

When a decision arises, I could make a Punnett square of Knowns and Unknowns. Or I could take the easier (if less geometrically pleasing) route of becoming comfortable with uncertainty.

“Comfortable” does not mean “enjoy.” It just means accepting that the amount of control I have on outcomes is small. The universe is large and filled with many forces besides my will. Having a perfect understanding of all these forces will never happen. The math is the same whether I acknowledge it or not. (Force equals mass times acceleration if you want to experiment for yourself.)

Fortunately, most decisions turn out ok if a bit of critical thinking is used. Even better, I’ll only die once, so that caps the amount of fatal decisions I can make at one. (That’s comforting, right?)

As for my sock problem, the costs of a poor decision are low—an additional sock purchase. Pick a brand and go with it.

Or hold out for certainty. Or pull a Kobayashi Maru, change the game, and stop wearing socks altogether.